OK, so never is a pretty long time, but I only have so much room for the title of an article; hence, allow me to qualify it for you. As long the scoring in soccer (football to non-Americans) remains the same (2.2 total average goals per game), it will not become a major team sport (top 3 in popularity) in the United States in the 21st or 22nd Century.
People's tastes can change a lot in 200 years in any culture or country, however, they rarely change that quickly when it comes to major pastimes. Baseball (first match played in the US, 1846), soccer (1869), American football (1869), basketball (1891), and hockey (1893) have all been around for a long time and they are not going anywhere in the near future. On the other hand, in the first 25-50 years of the 20th Century, the only 3 "major" sports that existed in the US were baseball, boxing, and horse racing. And the last two are slowing dying. Hence, allow me to back off from the never comment, after all, I had to get your attention somehow.
Admittedly, soccer is the most popular sport in the world, with 175 countries considering "football" to be their national pastime. However, while this is not totally irrelevant to our discussion (after all, at least you can make the argument that it is a highly marketable sport), soccer's tremendous worldwide popularity has little effect on its popularity in the US. This could change, of course, if a very large number of individuals immigrate to the US from countries where soccer is very popular. Given the current state of immigration laws, for purposes of this discussion, I am going to assume this will not happen in the near future.
Unless you were born yesterday (in which case you have incredible reading skills for a one-day-old), by now you know that soccer is not popular in the US because it does have enough scoring, action and/or contact for most Americans' tastes. To Americans who like the NFL (arguably the number 1 league and sport in the country), soccer seems like a chess match which often results in a stalemate. Americans like sports with action that contain the exciting possibility of a comeback. We do not want to watch a sport where when a team goes up 2-0 in the first half -- it feels like an insurmountable lead! Baseball does not have a lot of action or contact, however, it has enough scoring to keep its many fans happy. And comebacks almost always seem possible in a baseball game, which holds their fans' interest. Football has plenty of scoring and lots of action and contact. Basketball has lots of scoring and action, but little contact. Hockey has plenty of scoring and action, but more contact than it should. Soccer has little action, little scoring, and little contact. Not a good combination for Americans.
Keep in mind it does not matter whether you like soccer the way it is -- it only matters whether the typical American sports fan likes it or not -- no matter the reasons why. You might really appreciate the strategy in soccer, however, I will counter with: Why should I watch a boring "strategy" sport when I can watch an exciting sport with scoring, lots of action AND lots of strategy (i.e., American Football)?
Sorry, soccer fans, your sport has a long uphill battle for popularity in the US. As long as soccer remains very popular worldwide (which seems very likely), FIFA will make no major rule changes. And without major rules changes there will be no significant increase in scoring, which of course, will prevent soccer from becoming popular in the US. Unless, of course, Major League Soccer wants to play by different rules than FIFA, which seems very unlikely.
Soccer organizations and their fans are very much like MLB and its fans in regard to tradition and their resistance to change. Tradition has it place in everything in our society, including sports; but, there is always a balancing act between the sacredness of tradition and the improvement that change can make. Soccer needs to make some changes to create more scoring if it really wants to make it in the US.
I am less resistant to change than baseball and soccer fans, so let me make a few suggestions to improve soccer. First, get rid of the rule that limits substitutions to 3 per game. I see no reason not to allow unlimited substitutions, just as in American football and basketball (my two favorite sports to watch). Fresh bodies will result in faster, better play, and more action. It will probably increase the scoring a little, but only a little, though, since the defenders will also be fresher. Second, have the official time on display for all to see. Currently, only the referee, who can add "injury time" to the official time, is the only one who knows how much exact time is left. This is nothing short of moronic. It takes some of the suspense away from the fans in a close game and also affects the ability of the players to strategize near the end of the game.
Third, allow the players to use their hands. OK, I am kidding. I am just preparing you for my third suggestion. You ready? Here goes: get rid of the offside rule. Originally (1856/1863), the offside rule did not let the attacking player touch the ball "unless there are more than three of the other side before him." In the 1870's, after much discussion between clubs, it was changed to 3 defenders. Then in 1925, it was changed to 2 defenders and an immediate increase is scoring resulted (from 4700 goals to 6373 -- a 36 % increase.) Hmm. Of course you would have to limit the offside to, say, 2 players, who are offside -- otherwise a team could pack of a bunch of players in front of the goal keeper.
I know soccer purists hate this suggestion, because they claim it will ruin the quality of the game. I find their objections very unconvincing (especially with my suggestion where I would limit it to two players even on direct or corner kicks). There would more excitement, more action, more fast breaks, and most importantly, more scoring. I played soccer in high school and I tried to watch games in the last 3 World Cups. Even the Brazilian men were boring. Some of the games were unbearable, and I love all sports.
Please, if you want soccer to EVER be popular in the US, get rid of the unnecessary offside rule. Or make the goals bigger. Anything to increase the scoring to make it an exciting sport and not a chess match. I love chess, but it is not sport. And for the typical American sports viewer, neither is soccer.
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