Is The New Coach Effect A Real Phenomenon?

At the time of writing, ten Bundesliga coaches have been fired and replaced mid-season, with atleast three more already set to leave after the season. Often it's because of a job poorly done, but it can also be just to bring in a breath of fresh air. To start a clean sheet and give the team new confidence.

I've heard the old cliché about the first game of a new coach numerous times while talking to bettors. That the combination of the team being fired up and wanting to prove themselves to the new coach and the team being underrated by the opposition makes the first game with a new coach the ideal time for backing a team.

It's something I've noticed for a while, but haven't gotten around to checking the accuracy of. This morning, I gathered the complete list of all coaches fired mid-season from the big four (Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga and Serie A) leagues and checked how the teams did in the first game with the new coach.

Here's the complete list:

Bundesliga

Wolfsburg
* Steve McLaren -> Pierre Littbarski (7 feb)
* Pierre Littbarski -> Felix Magath (15 mar)

Hamburg
* Armin Veh -> Michael Önning (14 mar)

Stuttgart
* Christian Gross -> Jens Keller (13 oct)
* Jens Keller -> Bruno Labbadia (12 dec)

Köln
* Zvonimir Soldo -> Frank Schäfer (24 oct)

* Schalke 04
* Felix Magath -> Ralf Rangnick (15 mar)

Hoffenheim
* Ralf Rangnick -> Mario Pezzaiouli (1 jan)

Gladbach
* Michael Frontzeck -> Lucien Favre (13 feb)

Premier League

Aston Villa
* Martin O'Neill -> Gerard Houllier (9 sep)

Newcastle
* Chris Houghton -> Alan Pardew (8 dec)

Blackburn
* Sam Allardyce -> Steve Kean (13 dec)

Liverpool
* Roy Hodgson -> Kenny Dalglish (7 jan)

Serie A:

Bologna
* Franco Colombo -> Alberto Malesani (29 aug)

Genoa
* Gian Piero Gasperini -> Davide Ballardini (8 nov)

Brescia
o Guiseppe Iachini -> Mario Beretta (6 dec)
o Mario Beretta -> Guiseppe Iachini (30 jan)
o Inter
o Rafael Benitez - Leonardo (23 dec)
o Catania
o Marco Giampaolo -> Diego Simeone (18 jan)
o Bari
o Giampiero Ventura -> Bortolo Mutti (10 feb)
o Roma
o Claudio Ranieri -> Vincenzo Montanella (20 feb)
o Palermo
o Delio Rossi -> Serse Cosmi (28 feb)
o Sampdoria
o Domenico di Carlo -> Alberto Cavasin (7 mar)

La Liga

Osasuna
o Jose Antonio Camacho -> Jose Luis Medilibar (14 feb)

Racing Santander
o Miguel Angel Portugal -> Marcelino Garcia Toral (7 feb)

Almeria
o Juanma Lillo -> Jose Luis Oltra (nov)

Zaragoza
o Jose Gay -> Javier Aguirre (18 nov)

Malaga
o Jesualdo Ferreira -> Manuel Pellegrini (2 nov)

Sevilla
o Antonio Alvarez -> Gregorio Manzano (30 sep)

There's one or two instances where the new coach hasn't had time to play any games yet, as with Eintracht Frankfurt.

There are 29 cases on this list. While that certainly isn't enough to draw any absolute conclusions from, it should still produce some interesting results. If, in fact, the New Coach Effect is complete nonsense, numbers should reflect that.

But they don't. Out of these 29 games, thirteen were won by the team with the new coach, six were drawn and ten were lost.

That's a W/D/L percentage of 44.8%/20.7%/34.5%, or 1.55 league points per game on average. Considering the managerial turmoil and terrible form of pretty much every team on the list and considering that roughly half of the games were played away, taking 1.55 points per game is incredibly impressive.

It's the equivalent performance of a top quarter table in any of the leagues. To give you a comparison, here's some teams that has taken less than 1.55 points per game this season:

o Hamburger SV
o Schalke 04
o Liverpool
o Everton
o Sevilla
o Athletico Madrid
o Juventus
o Palermo

Of course variance could be the major cause in these surprising numbers, but I doubt it. But if there was absolutely no truth to the theory, then we really shouldn't see a team portfolio containing teams like Almeria, Brescia, Blackburn and Borussia Mönchengladbach outperform a portfolio containing Hamburg, Liverpool, Sevilla and Juventus over thirty games.

When Eintracht Frankfurt faces Wolfsburg on March 4, both sides will have a new manager. Even though Felix Magath has actually already completed one game for his new side, I think it's pretty safe to say that the impression he has left on Wolfsburgs morale won't wear off quite that easily.

Magath has been described as a "short-term coach", implying he's good for whipping an undisciplined, unmotivated team into shape, but in the long term, the relationship strains caused by his totalitarian leadership style makes retaining that morale quite difficult.

In this case, I think Magaths effect on Wolfsburg trumps Christoph Daums effect on Frankfurt. But then again, who am I to question such a seemingly powerful phenomenon?

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